Election 2000: Exit Poll Analysis

A summary of the exit polls shows that Bush won the election by the "white religious right".  Everybody else tends to lean towards Gore.  And Nader's largest support is among those who have no religion at all.

As Expected:

1. Most men voted for Bush; most women voted for Gore.
2. Bush has a slight advantage among whites.
3. Gore has a big advantage among minorities and a HUGE advantage (90%) among blacks.
4. Gore won 18-29 and 60+ voters while Bush won 30-59.
5. Both Gore and Nader did well with voters of lower incomes, and Bush did well among voters with higher incomes.
6. Gore had a 16-point advantage over Bush among voters who consider themselves "working women".
7. Gore won voters who had union members in the household.  Bush won voters who did not have union members in the household.
8. Gore held an 18-point advantage among union voters.
9. Gore held a slight advantage in voters who consider themselves "working class".
10. Gore won the "liberal" vote, and Bush won the "conservative" vote", both by overwhelming margins.
11. Gore won the "moderate" vote.
12. 70% of gays voted for Gore.
13. Bush held a slight advantage among heterosexuals.
14. Gore won an overwhelming majority of those who voted for Clinton in 96.
15. Bush won an overwhelming majority of those who voted for Dole in 96.
16. Bush won 64% of those who voted for Perot in 96.
17. Bush had a slight advantage among those who regularly use the internet, while Gore held a larger advantage among those who do not regularly use the internet.
18. Bush won the gunowner vote, while Gore won the non-gunowner vote.
19. Nader did very well among those with either minority religions or no religion at all.
20. Those who attend religious services at least once per week voted overwhelmingly for Bush.
21. Those who consider themselves the "white religious right" voted overwhelmingly for Bush (80%), while those who do not consider themselves the "white religious right" voted for Gore.
22. Bush's biggest support issue is taxes; Gore's is health care, and Nader's is world affairs.
23. Gore's experience helped him the most.
24. Bush's appearance of being honest and trustworthy helped him the most.
25. Nader's support comes from those who thinks he "cares about people".
26. Gore won the issues, but Bush won the personal qualities.
27. Both Gore and Bush voters think the other candidate will say anything to win, while they think their candidate won't.
28. Nader's voters think that both Gore and Bush will say anything to win.
29. Nader's voters think that Gore is too conservative on the issues.
30. The overwhelming majority of voters think that the candidate they voted for is the only candidate who can handle a world crisis.
31. Gore voters think government should do more; Bush voters think government should do less.
32. Gore won the "environment" vote, and Bush won the "economy" vote.
33. 66% of the voters think the economy will be worse a year after the election.
34. 60% of the voters think Clinton is "unfavorable" as a person.
35. 39% of the voters disapprove of Clinton's performance AND consider him to be "unfavorable" as a person.
36. 70% said Clinton was not a factor in their vote.
37. 66% would not want their kids to be president.
38. Gore won the "city" vote, while Bush won the "rural and small town" vote.
39. Bush held a slight advantage in the suburb vote, which accounted for 43% of all the voters.
40. If people were voting for vice-president, Cheney would win.

Small Surprises:

1. Most white women voted for Bush.
2. Gore won voters with no high school diploma and those with post-graduate degrees, but Bush won among high school graduates, those who attended college, and those who graduated college.
3. Bush has a slight edge among those with college educations.
4. Those with no college education were split evenly between Bush and Gore.
5. Married people voted for Bush, while unmarried people voted for Gore and Nader.
6. Bush won those voters with children under 18, while Nader and Gore did well among those voters with no children under 18.
7. More democrats voted for Bush than did Republicans for Gore.
8. Bush held a slight advantage among "independents".  This can probably be partly explained by Nader receiving his largest support from independents.
9. Those who voted for Bush made up their minds more than one month before the election, while those who voted for Gore and Nader made up their minds within the last month.
10. Protestants voted for Bush, while Gore won everything else, including Catholics.   But the reason for the Catholics going for Gore might be explained by the fact that minority Catholics overwhelmingly supported Gore, but white Catholics actually still went with Bush.
11. Only 4% of Gore's voters think that Bush is knowledgeable enough to be president, while only 5% of Bush's voters think the same thing about Gore.  11% of Nader's voters think neither Bush nor Gore is knowledgeable enough to be president.
12. Bush won 71% of the vote among those who think both he and Gore are knowledgeable enough to be president.
13. Abortion is still an important issue.  Those who think abortion should be legal overwhelmingly went with Gore while those who think abortion should be illegal went overwhelmingly with Bush.
14. 53% of voters prefer the Republicans to maintain control of Congress.
15. 57% of the voters think the nation's economy is "not good".

Big Surprises:

1. Nader faired better among those with no college education than those with a college education.
2. Gore won a large majority of voters who consider themselves to be "upper class", while Bush won a large majority of those who consider themselves to be "upper-middle class".
3. 42% of those who think that Gore is too conservative on the issues voted for Bush.
4. 3% of those who think that Bush is too liberal on the issues voted for Nader?!?
5. If there was only a two-way race between Gore and Bush, Bush would win the popular vote.
6. 70% of the voters own stocks.